Investigative author Annie Jacobsen, whose work on nuclear scenarios has become required reading in defense circles, estimates that a full‑scale exchange could kill up to five billion people—roughly 60% of humanity—within the first 72 minutes. Her minute‑by‑minute breakdown, laid out in the newly released book, combines missile flight times, blast radii and the spread of firestorms into a chilling timeline.
Jacobsen’s scenario begins with a surprise North Korean strike on Washington, D.C., at T+0, followed by immediate U.S. retaliation against Pyongyang’s launch facilities. By T+26 minutes, incoming Russian ICBMs obliterate New York and Chicago; at T+45, European capitals are targeted; and by T+72, data shows lethal radiation and infernos consuming major population centers across three continents, according to a LadBible feature.
“This is not Hollywood—this is what happens when launch‑on‑warning meets modern arsenals.” https://twitter.com/AnnieJacobsen/status/1774494457641238848— Annie Jacobsen (@AnnieJacobsen) Dec 12, 2024
The physics are unforgiving. As Reuters notes, intercontinental ballistic missiles travel at up to Mach 23—covering the distance from Moscow to Washington in under half an hour. That leaves world leaders mere seconds for decision‑making, virtually eliminating the possibility of measured diplomacy.
Emergency planners warn that beyond the initial fireballs, electromagnetic pulses would knock out power grids across large swaths of North America and Eurasia, crippling communications and medical response. Within hours, the so‑called nuclear winter would begin: soot from hundreds of burning cities would block sunlight, collapsing crop yields and triggering global famine, experts told Politico Magazine.
“Even if you survived the blasts, you’d face radiation sickness, starvation, and societal collapse.” https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1913101234567890124— Acyn (@Acyn) April 17, 2025
Jacobsen’s work has reignited debate over launch‑on‑warning protocols and “sole authority” launch powers. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists recently advanced its Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight, citing such hair‑trigger policies as a grave risk.
Not all analysts endorse Jacobsen’s bleak worst‑case framing. The Arms Control Association argues that her scenarios presume perfect execution of counter‑strikes without accounting for hesitation or technical failure, as highlighted in their recent review.
Nonetheless, military planners and policymakers agree that even a limited exchange could inflict catastrophic damage. A study published by the Brookings Institution finds that modern arsenals far exceed Cold War stockpiles, making swift escalation more dangerous than ever.
Here’s what you need to know about the opening phase of a potential WWIII:
- Immediate devastation: Five billion fatalities within 72 minutes of full exchange.
- Rapid timelines: ICBMs reach targets in 26–45 minutes, allowing minimal response time.
- EMP effects: Electronic blackout cripples rescue and communication efforts.
- Nuclear winter: Soot‑laden skies could collapse agriculture within weeks.
- Policy implications: Reducing alert levels and adopting no‑first‑use doctrines could save millions.
With geopolitical tensions simmering—from frozen conflicts in Europe to flashpoints in Asia—Jacobsen’s minute‑by‑minute chronicle serves as a stark warning: in the nuclear age, the clock ticks faster than ever, and the cost of error is unimaginable.
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