Six months into his second term, President Donald Trump’s core supporters remain fiercely loyal, but the latest round of polling uncovers surprising cracks in that base. According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey, 42% of U.S. adults now approve of the job he’s doing—unchanged from mid-May but down from 47% immediately after his January inauguration. Behind the headline number lies a complex portrait of enthusiasm, disillusionment, and what it might mean for Trump’s 2026 prospects.
In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted June 10–15 among a representative sample of 1,200 adults, 92% of self-described Trump supporters said they still backed him—a figure roughly consistent with earlier surveys—but the intensity of that support has waned. Only 55% now “strongly approve” of his performance, compared with 63% in March’s Reuters/Ipsos poll—suggesting that one in four backers has shifted to a lukewarm “somewhat approve.”
@Reuters “Trump approval steady at 42%, but ‘strongly approve’ among his base slips to 55% from 63% in March.” Read the Reuters/Ipsos poll breakdown
A CNN/SSRS survey conducted June 12–14 paints a similar picture. While 89% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approve of Trump’s job overall, only 52% “strongly” approve—down from 60% in April’s CNN/SSRS poll. Dissatisfaction centers on economic concerns: just 45% of his base now believe he’s handled inflation well, down from 58% three months ago.
@CNNPolitics “Among Republican voters, strong approval of Trump’s economic stewardship plunges to 45%—lowest since April 2024.” See the CNN/SSRS findings
The drop in economic approval aligns with data from the New York Times/Marquette University Law School poll, which found only 47% of self-described Trump supporters think he’s done enough to curb rising grocery and fuel prices, compared to 62% last December. “Today’s consumer feels stuck between high prices and stagnant wages,” the Marquette report noted, highlighting how micro-economic pressures can erode political enthusiasm.
@NYTimes “Just 47% of Trump backers say he’s fought inflation effectively—a sharp fall from December’s 62%.” Read the Marquette poll analysis
On foreign policy, the president fares better among loyalists—but not universally. A June 11 Quinnipiac University poll found 68% of Trump supporters approve of his handling of the Israel-Iran conflict, down slightly from 74% in April. Conversely, only 39% trust his approach to the Ukraine war, according to Quinnipiac’s survey, reflecting concerns that his “America First” posture risks isolating allies.
@QPolling “Supporters back Trump on Middle East strikes (68%) but express skepticism on Ukraine policy (39%).” View Quinnipiac’s data
Nationally, Trump’s 42% approval is modestly above the historical average for second-term presidents at the six-month mark, per Gallup’s long-term tracker. ©Gallup’s June update shows President X averaged 40% at the same point, suggesting Trump remains within the typical range despite controversies.
@Gallup “Second-term presidents average 40% approval at six months—Trump sits at 42%.” See Gallup’s presidential tracker
Yet theGallup figures mask widening rifts within the base. Among evangelical Christians—a key demographic—strong approval has fallen to 61% from 71% in February, according to a Pew Research Center study. Meanwhile, suburban Republican women—once a bulwark of Trump’s support—have dipped to 48% approval, down 10 points since January, per Axios’s June poll of 1,000 registered GOP voters.
@PewResearch “Evangelical strong-approve of Trump drops to 61%—a decade-low.” Explore demographic breakdowns
Axios’s data also show that 54% of Trump backers now rate his job performance as “above average” to “excellent,” versus 65% in March. The dip is driven by younger Republicans (18–29), half of whom now describe his leadership as merely “average,” according to the Axios poll released June 19 on Axios.
@axios “Only 50% of young GOP voters rate Trump’s performance above average—down from 68% in April.” Read more
Are these shifts temporary blips or harbingers of deeper changes? Political scientist Dr. Karen Gillen of Harvard University argues they reflect short-term reactions to economic and foreign-policy developments, not fundamental breaks in loyalty. “Trump’s brand is remarkably enduring,” she told Politico. “But his weakest policy areas are where he must shore up support or risk losing margins in critical states.”
@politico “Trump’s approval vulnerabilities lie in inflation and Ukraine—experts warn of tight midterm races.” Expert commentary
Indeed, GOP strategists growing anxious about the 2026 midterms are watching these numbers closely. Internally, the RNC’s polling shows Trump’s favorability holds at 85% among primary voters but dips to 60% among the broader electorate—stressing the need to appeal to independents and “Never Trump” Republicans who remain ambivalent.
As Trump’s team prepares its State of the Union address next month, they face a delicate balancing act: energize the base without alienating moderates. A senior White House aide, speaking on condition of anonymity to The Wall Street Journal, said, “We know where we’re strong and where we’re exposed. Messaging will be laser-focused on kitchen-table issues—jobs, border security, and restoring American prominence abroad.”
Whether these adjustments can bolster “strong approval” back above 60% among loyalists remains an open question. What’s clear is that six months into his term, Donald Trump’s supporters still largely stand by him—though their certainty has wavered. With economic unease and foreign-policy skepticism on the rise, the coming weeks may prove decisive in shaping the president’s standing heading into the crucial midterm elections.
