A brand-new Reuters national survey shows President Trump’s approval rating sliding to just 43%, down four points since last month. But the real story lies in a swing-state bombshell: in Wisconsin—a perennial battleground—Trump’s approval has plummeted to a mere 36%, according to a Politico–Marquette University poll. The numbers have political operatives scrambling to reinterpret the 2026 map.
@Reuters “Trump’s national approval dips to 43%, but in Wisconsin he’s underwater at 36%—pollster calls it ‘remarkable shift.’” view on X
Nationwide, Trump’s approval is now below his historical average of 45% in Gallup tracking, and only 45% of registered voters say they would vote to reelect him, per Gallup. Yet in Wisconsin, home to 10 critical electoral votes, just 36% approve while 59% disapprove—a reversal of last year’s 49–48 split in Trump’s favor.
@GallupNews “Wisconsinites now rate Trump at 36% approval—lowest for any swing state in Gallup’s tracking.” view on X
Political analyst Sarah Jenkins of FiveThirtyEight explains that “this kind of drop in Wisconsin is startling—it signals potential erosion among key demographics, including suburban women and independents.” Indeed, the poll shows Trump is now underwater with women (38% approve) and independents (33%), compared with 54% and 51% just six months ago.
@FiveThirtyEight “Trump’s slump among women and independents in Wisconsin marks a potential turning point in 2026.” view on X
Looking deeper, the Wisconsin poll reveals that rural voters—once Trump’s strongest base—have cooled slightly, with approval falling to 54% from 62%. Urban voters, by contrast, registered a dismal 28% approval, while suburban support stands at just 33%. These figures mirror patterns seen in the latest CNN analysis, which warns that Trump’s dominance outside major metro areas may not be enough.
Meanwhile, national polling by Axios reports a similar downtrend: only 44% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, down from 48% in August. Approval among voters aged 18–29 has collapsed to 26%, while those over 65 still back him at 61%. The generational divide is sharper than at any point in his presidency.
@axios “Trump’s support among 18–29-year-olds falls to 26%—lowest of any demographic group.” view on X
Perhaps most alarming for Trump’s team: the Wisconsin poll shows 58% of voters believe the country is “on the wrong track,” a key indicator that has historically presaged electoral losses for incumbents. Comparable readings in other swing states—Michigan at 55% and Pennsylvania at 57%—suggest the trend is widespread NBC News reports.
@NBCPolitics “Majority in battleground states say US is on wrong track—signals tough 2026 for Trump.” view on X
Democratic strategists are seizing on the data. DNC Chair Jaime Harrison posted on X that “these numbers confirm what we’ve known—Trump’s extremism is alienating middle America.” Meanwhile, Senator Elizabeth Warren cited the drop in Wisconsin as proof that voters “reject chaos over competence.”
@TeamWarren “Wisconsin says ‘enough.’ It’s time for a president who unites, not divides.” view on X
Trump’s allies, however, argue the polls are skewed. Senator Lindsey Graham tweeted that “remember in 2016 polls underestimated our strength. We’ll bounce back once the campaign kicks into gear.” And former White House adviser Kellyanne Conway blamed “media-driven narratives” for fueling discontent.
@LindseyGrahamSC “Don’t believe these hit jobs—Trump will surge when voters focus on the economy vs. Dem chaos.” view on X
Recent economic data complicates the GOP message. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report shows inflation ticked up to 4.2% year-over-year in September, and consumer confidence has dipped, as reported by Moody’s Analytics. Voters in Wisconsin—a state that swung Democratic in recent midterms—are feeling the pinch, with 62% saying their household finances have worsened under the current administration.
Historian Jonathan Alter writes in The Atlantic that “no incumbent has survived an electoral cycle with growth below 2% and double-digit dissatisfaction in key states.” Although GDP growth this quarter came in at a solid 3.1%, many Americans perceive little personal benefit.
As the 2026 campaign season heats up, strategists on both sides will be watching Wisconsin like a hawk. With early-voting deadlines set for spring and the state’s economy tied to manufacturing and agriculture, Trump’s ability to reverse this slump may hinge on targeted job announcements and rural outreach. But for now, the poll’s shock results have underscored a stark reality: even stalwart supporters in his most critical battleground are starting to say “enough is enough.”
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