Astrophysicists have raised the alarm after new trajectory models show asteroid 2025 QZ3—a rock the size of the Eiffel Tower—will pass within 20,000 miles of Earth in 2028, close enough to unleash catastrophic shockwaves that could level entire cities without colliding with the planet’s surface NASA hazard assessment.
Dr. Elena Vasquez, lead researcher at the Planetary Defense Coordination Office, explained that a near-miss at that distance could trigger airbursts equivalent to hundreds of megatons of TNT, matching or exceeding the largest nuclear tests ever conducted CNN’s detailed risk analysis. She emphasized that the resulting supersonic shockwaves would travel hundreds of miles, shattering buildings and igniting widespread fires.
Initial interest in 2025 QZ3 spiked after amateur astronomers logged observations on the JPL Small-Body Database, where slight gravitational tugs by Mars altered its orbit more than expected. “Our refined simulations now indicate a 0.3 percent chance of an airburst over a major city,” Vasquez warned in a press briefing broadcast on ESA’s live stream.
@PlanetaryDefense “2025 QZ3’s flyby could produce shockwaves strong enough to shatter windows in New York City and beyond.” via X
Historical analogs underscore the threat: the 1908 Tunguska event in Siberia leveled 830 square miles of forest through an airburst from an estimated 100-meter object, and scaling up to QZ3’s 300-meter diameter suggests exponentially greater devastation National Geographic retrospective. Experts calculate that a similar explosion over a metropolis like Chicago would obliterate urban infrastructure and leave a crater of burning debris.
Emergency-management teams at the FEMA asteroid preparedness portal have begun drafting blast-shelter blueprints based on nuclear bunker designs, specifying reinforced concrete structures rated for over 100 psi of overpressure. Residents in risk zones are instructed to identify underground parking garages or purpose-built shelters and stock them with food, water, and medical supplies for at least 72 hours.
@FEMA “Identify nearest hardened structure now—delay could cost thousands of lives.” via X
On the international front, the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space convened an emergency session, urging member states to share radar data and funding for planetary defense under a resolution passed live on UN Web TV. Delegates agreed to form a global task force modeled on the International Space Station partnership to coordinate deflection strategies.
China’s CNSA proposed a nuclear standoff mission—detonating a warhead near QZ3’s surface to slightly alter its course—detailed in a U.S. State Department brief. Western experts expressed concern that nuclear fragmentation could create multiple hazardous fragments, as outlined in a joint paper by the International Scientific Coalition.
Meanwhile, ESA’s HERA mission is being retooled to launch by 2027 for a kinetic-impact demonstration on an analog asteroid, aiming to validate how much momentum transfer is needed to nudge QZ3 off course. NASA’s DART mission, which successfully diverted asteroid Dimorphos in 2022, informs these models, but QZ3’s larger mass demands scaled-up spacecraft and propulsion systems.
@ESA_Hera “Accelerating HERA timeline to demonstrate deflection before QZ3’s close approach.” via X
Public engagement is critical: the B612 Foundation launched a crowdsourced tracking initiative on Reddit’s asteroiddeflection forum, where amateur observers contribute telescope imagery and refine orbital models. Their real-time updates feed into NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS portal), improving uncertainty estimates.
Astrophotographer @DeepSkyChase shared infrared scans from the Infrared Telescope Facility showing QZ3’s rapid rotation period—an important factor for deflection modeling—during a video embedded in an X post. The data revealed complex surface composition, including metallic veins that could affect how an impactor transfers energy.
@DeepSkyChase “QZ3’s spin rate and metallic content complicate deflection—precision is paramount.” via X
As the next key milestone, QZ3 will make a more distant but still worrisome pass in 2026, providing the final window to launch a deflection mission before the critical 2028 approach. Space agencies warn that delaying beyond 2026 could require exponentially greater force or make deflection unfeasible.
Civil defense experts at the Red Cross international disasters page stress that public drills and communication campaigns must begin immediately. They recommend communities simulate airburst scenarios, practice shelter-in-place protocols, and develop rapid notification systems using mass-text alerts.
With political wrangling over defense budgets slated in upcoming G7 and G20 summits, voices from science and security sectors urge that funding planetary defense receive parity with traditional arms control and nuclear nonproliferation efforts. As astrophysicist Dr. Vasquez concluded, “In an era of global threats, an asteroid airburst ranks alongside pandemics and climate change—and demands the same level of coordinated response.”
